Polls and trends are leaning towards the 2012 Presidential Election as being a strong year for a “third” candidate. In 2008 a total of 6 candidates for President were on the ballot in enough states to win the White House, however, outside of Obama and McCain, no candidate received more than 2% of the vote. Polls are showing that this election may be different, with a Rasmussen Poll in June showing a potential 30% going to a third-candidate (or a number of alternative candidates).
In a recent Western Illinois University Mock Election, Jill Stein, a candidate for the Green Party Presidential Nomination, won 27%, with Obama winning over a Romney Nomination. Granted, Stein had spoken at the Straw Poll, but both Greens and Libertarians were included in the process (Libertarians worked in the GOP Mock Primary to support Ron Paul), and the poll showed that even a strong Green Party candidate will not necessarily “spoil” the election for the Democrats.
If Ron Paul does not win the Republican Nomination it is even more likely that the opening for a third-party candidate will make in viable for an upset of the two-party dominance in Presidential Elections that has only been usurped by the Lincoln campaign’s merger of anti-abolitionist third-party movements in the the late nineteenth-century. A Rasmussen Poll with a three way Obama-Romney-Paul race shows Ron Paul winning 18% of the vote (and Mayor Bloomberg winning 13% in a similar three-way race). It is almost curtain that Ron Paul will not run as an independent if he fails to receive the Republican Nomination, however, a “libertarian” third-party candidate could potentially take a majority of that 18%.
|
Poll |
President Obama |
Republican Nominee |
Third-Candidate |
| Rasmussen Poll | N/A% | N/A% (Generic) |
30% (Generic) |
| NBC/WSJ Poll | 44% | 32% (Romney) |
18% (Paul) |
| NBC/WSJ Poll | 44% | 35% (Romney) |
13% (Bloomberg) |
| WIU Mock Election | 39% | 33% (Romney) | 27% (Stein) |
Addtionally, a Gallup Poll has shown that interest in a third-party candidate for 2012 is above 50% with the American Electorate. Whatever happens, it looks like the majority of Americans will be considering a third-party or independent candidate in 2012, and said candidate could potentially win upwards of 30% of the vote, if not more.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/147461/support-third-party-dips-majority-view.aspx
From the Left and the Right
This trend is not going unseen by independent, and establishment, political groups. Americans Elect is attempting at creating a corporate ticket on all 50 state ballots. Former Republican Governor Buddy Roemer has announced that he will seek the nomination of the private groups members. If he wins the Americans Elect nomination he will have to choose a Democrat (or Independent) as his running mate (from the Americans Elect “tracking” this would most likely be Rep. Kucinich or Sen. Sanders).
http://www.americanselect.org/
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2011/11/buddy_roemer_to_seek_americans.html
Former Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson has announced the formation of the Justice Party in order to organize his run for the Presidency. He will join the Green, Libertarian and Constitution Party nominees as candidates technically capable of winning the Presidency. In the Libertarian field R.J. Harris currently is considered the front-runner, with Gary Johnson potentially attempting to win the Nomination as his GOP Candidacy gets ignored by the party establishment. In the Green Party Primary Jill Stein is the favorite, with no clear front-runner establishing themselves in the Constitution Primary.
http://www.grist.org/article/anderson1
In addition, Former Governor Jesse Ventura has alluded to a potential Independent run if Ron Paul fails to secure the Republican Nomination.
http://politics.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474980723019
It All Rests on Paul
The viability of a third-party candidate rests on whether or not Ron Paul wins the Republican Nomination. Attempts from the Left will happen no matter what, with Anderson and the Green Party candidate challenging Obama on his progressive failings. However, the impact of a candidate from the libertarian-Right is almost certainly dependent on Ron Paul presence on the GOP Ticket. If Ron Paul wins the Nomination, he is polled to evenly challenge President Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/president_obama_vs_republican_candidates.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ron-Paul-Bests-Obama-in-bw-3821734650.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/149114/Obama-Close-Race-Against-Romney-Perry-Bachmann-Paul.aspx
If you add in a strong challenge from the left, Paul will be positioned to unseat the President. However, if Ron Paul is not the Nominee (and does not run as an Independent as he has stated he has no intention of doing) then the Republican Nominee will certainly be hurt by a Roemer led Americans Elect ticket and the Libertarian and Constitution Party Candidates.
At any rate, the election will be determined by the presence of third, forth, and fifth candidates, with the potential of a strong third candidate winning if the Republican Candidate proves weak, and Obama is successfully challenged from the left. The only way the 2012 election will be a strong two-person race is with Ron Paul as the GOP Nominee. The only way for the GOP to come out of the 2012 Election as a relevant opposition Party is to Nominate, and Elect, Ron Paul as President. If that is not the case, the GOP Nominee will find themselves competing not with Obama, but with their own Buddy Roemer, and/or a Libertarian/Constitution Candidate.
Leading Third Party Candidates
Buddy Roemer – Americans Elect
Rock Anderson – Justice Party
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocky_Anderson
Jill Stein – Green Party
R.J. Harris – Libertarian Party
Complete List of 2012 Presidential Candidates
http://politics1.com/p2012.htm
Thumbnail Image:
By Jen Wakefield-Dillier from Murray, USA [CC-BY-2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
By Greengrass (Own work) [CC-BY-SA-3.0 or GFDL], via Wikimedia Commons
Gage Skidmore [CC-BY-SA-3.0], via Wikimedia Commons
RJ Harris [CC-BY-SA-3.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Jack Wagner is the Editor of The Free Independent-Sun. Born in Sonoma, California and currently residing in San Francisco, Jack set up The Free Independent-Sun on July 4th, 2009, after sleeping in and not making his usual trip up north for his hometown festivities. He figured he'd do something revolutionary to make up for it. In the Summer of 2010 Jack registered Seraf Media with the City and County of San Francisco as a Sole-Proprietorship. He is dedicated to articulating the finer points of the Revolution in order to bring about a Global Renaissance and Abundant World Economy. He also isn't afraid to get his hands dirty transplanting succulents. 
