As I’ve been getting more-and-more involved with the Republican Primary, attending both Ron Paul events, and Official GOP Events. At GOP Meetings, as well as in the GOP Debates, the message is clear; beat President Obama. As the Primary is starting to refined to a contest between Mitt Romney and Ron Paul (with Rick Santorum a potentially dark-horse), it is important for Republicans, if they want to unseat the incumbent President, to look at the facts about the 2012 election and really look at who can give them that victory.
As I looked at the recent PPP Poll, which was sent to me by the Gary Johnson campaign (showing the Libertarian Candidate at 9% in a three-way race against Obama and Romney), I noticed something; Romney can’t win.
Polls that only take into consideration two candidates show Romney with a lead over Obama in a head-to-head race, with Ron Paul slightly behind Romney, usually tied with the President (or within range). In the recent PPP Poll, a number of candidates were put against Obama and Romney in a three-way race. Donald Trump came up with the best showing at 19%, giving the Presidency to Obama. Ron Paul came in second with 17%, again, giving the Presidency to Obama. In fact, every third-party/independent candidate, when polled against Obama and Romney as the GOP Candidate, gave the President a second term, or led to a tie in the case of Bernie Sanders.
Even in a four-party mock election held recently, including Greens and Libertarians, where Jill Stein got 27% as as the Green Party Nominee, Obama won a second term.
|
Third-Party/Independent |
Republican Nominee Romney |
President Obama |
|
Gary Johnson – 9% |
41% |
43% (Win) |
|
Ron Paul – 17% |
37% |
42% (Win) |
|
Michael Bloomberg – 8% |
41% |
43% (Win) |
|
Rocky Anderson – 4% |
43% |
44% (Win) |
|
Jon Huntsman – 11% |
37% |
43% (Win) |
|
Donald Trump – 19% |
31% |
45% (Win) |
|
Bernie Sanders – 7% |
42% (Tie) |
42% (Tie) |
From: http://freeindependentsun.com/republic/2012-year-of-the-third-party/
|
Poll |
President Obama |
Republican Nominee |
Third-Candidate |
| Rasmussen Poll | N/A% | N/A% (Generic) |
30% (Generic) |
| NBC/WSJ Poll | 44% | 32% (Romney) |
18% (Paul) |
| NBC/WSJ Poll | 44% | 35% (Romney) |
13% (Bloomberg) |
| WIU Mock Election | 39% | 33% (Romney) | 27% (Stein) |
What makes this important is that the reality is that this will not be a 2-person race. While third-party/independent runs by Donald Trump, Ron Paul, Micheal Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders are both hypothetical and unlikely; Gary Johnson is all but certain to win the Libertarian Party nomination and will be on the ballot in all 50 states. In that event, he is likely to receive up to 9% of the vote if Romney is the GOP Nominee. If Ron Paul were the nominee, it is very likely that Johnson would endorse him. In addition to Johnson’s participation, it is likely that either Rocky Anderson (of the newly formed Justice Party) or a Green Party Nominee (most likely Jill Stein) will be on the ballot in enough states (45+) to pull votes from the left (and from Independents if Romney is the GOP Nominee), as much as 4% according to the PPP Poll.
We also cannot forget the Americans Elect ticket, which is shooting for 50 State ballot access for their candidate, which will most likely be Buddy Rommer (a Republican), who is likely to pull more votes from Romney ticket than from a Paul ticket.
Poll Analysis Conclusion
So, what can we access from this poll, and the polling in general on the potential “3-Way Race” in 2012?
- That the majority of interest for a third-candidate is coming from the right, not the left
- That a majority of the interest is currently supporting Ron Paul, and will go to someone like Johnson if Romney is the Nominee
- Paul can maintain the Romney-Republican base, but Romney cannot maintain the independent/Ron Paul base.
- Thus, despite head-to-head polling, Ron Paul is potentially the only candidate, as a Republican, that can defeat President Obama (even a Ron Paul third-party run won’t win, as it will likely split the Republican vote).
We Need A Real 2012 General Election Poll
In order to really see what the 2012 General Election will look like, PPP (or another Polling Company) needs to conduct a Poll in which the following scenarios are presented (or ones similar, with actual likely candidates):
- If the candidates are: Obama, Romney, Johnson, and Anderson
- If the candidates are: Obama, Paul, Johnson and Anderson
- If the candidates are: Obama, Paul, Roemer, Anderson and Stein
- If the candidates are: Obama, Romney, Roemer, Johnson, Anderson and Stein
- If the candidates are: Obama, Paul, Roemer, Johnson, Anderson and Stein
The reality is that the 2012 General Election will not be a two-way, or even a three-way, race. It is likely there will be 4-7 Candidates with 50 State ballot access (or at least 45+). Also keep in mind that a Constitution Party candidate has yet to emerge as a clear front-runner for their Nomination.
GOP Primary Currently A 3-Way Tie
As we head into the New Hampshire Primary it is also important to know where the candidates stand. As far as Delegates to the Republican National Conference, there is a 3-Way Tie between Paul, Romney and Santorum, each taking 7 pledged delegates from Iowa. Perry and Gingrich each take 2 pledged delegates as well. Keep in mind, that delegates that have pledged to vote for a candidate that has dropped out by the RNC this summer can cast their vote for another candidate.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/primaries/state/ia
Jack Wagner is the Editor of The Free Independent-Sun. Born in Sonoma, California and currently residing in San Francisco, Jack set up The Free Independent-Sun on July 4th, 2009, after sleeping in and not making his usual trip up north for his hometown festivities. He figured he'd do something revolutionary to make up for it. In the Summer of 2010 Jack registered Seraf Media with the City and County of San Francisco as a Sole-Proprietorship. He is dedicated to articulating the finer points of the Revolution in order to bring about a Global Renaissance and Abundant World Economy. He also isn't afraid to get his hands dirty transplanting succulents. 
Just face it, no Republican candidate can win against Obumer with only the Republican vote. That is all Romney can get and if Paul looses the nomination then Romney will even loose a lot of Republican votes including yours truly. I am not going to go with the status quo any longer or who the MSM thinks I should vote for and I am in no ways along on this. Take away the Independents, cross over Democrats and a lot of Republicans who are fed up and Romney has about as much a chance of beating Obumer as I have walking to the moon. Only shot America has at beating Obumer is Ron Paul period.
Jill Stein will shake up the planet by winning the 2012 election.
Blast corporatocracy!
We want a decent,honest man like Ron Paul not tell them what they want to hear Mitt Romney.
I have many, many Democrat friends who would vote for Ron Paul if he were to go independent. They simply refuse to vote Republican, despite the fact they like Ron Paul. They’re waiting to see what happens. Ron Paul is the only man that can beat that lying sack of shit Obama.
I am a 46yr old veteran and long time Independent. I support our troops. Our troops overwhelmingly want Dr. Paul as their Commander In Chief. Ron Paul is the only GOP candidate that can win the Independent vote and beat Obama. No other GOP Candidate can win the Independent vote, period! Vote Ron Paul!
Look, I support Paul 100% but he’s not going third-party. Rand Paul will run in 2016 so Ron will keep his powder dry. That said, no one of consequence with a right-leaning appeal will run on the America Elects ticket because they would become hated by half of America and will see their vote shrivel by Election Day anyway. Want proof? Look at Andersen in ’80, Nader in ’00, Barr in ’08, even Paul in ’88. Yes, Perot finished strong in ’92 (not in ’96 though), but is was far worse than he was showing early in the year.
I am a strong supporters of third-parties but they will not poll more than 1.5% combined this year, similar to previous years, because everyone is afraid they will let Obama or Romney win. Gary Johnson will do well if he sets the all-time record for Libertarian candidates and gets 1 million votes or 0.8%.
The primaries are the place to make an impact for Ron Paul. Give him maximum leverage at the convention by winning delegates. Make Romney earn the support of libertarians and constitutional conservatives. Then help him boot out Obama and prepare for Rand’s 2016 primary challenge.
The flaw in the logic here is that this popular vote polling does not accurately reflect reality when it comes to 3rd party results. There is too much crap thrown in the mix because of the all or nothing state vote, that a lot of time, those 3rd party votes are near inconsequential.
I think what is more significant, and what would show up in your proposed polls, is that paul is much more likely to pull former Obama voters than Romney is. I truly believe the success of Obama in the 2012 elections will henge not on who votes for 3rd parties, but who, of the former Obama voters, will vote republican this year.
Thanks for a great article. This just proves what I have been saying for the last two years, that Romney cannot beat Barack Obama.
Voters who want wars, torture, assassinations, “humanitarian” bombings in oil rich countries, indefinite detentions, drone attacks that kill the innocent, erosion of civil liberties, domestic war on the people (drug war), out-of-control debt and spending, graft and greed, crony capitalism, pandering to special interests, bailouts, more of the same, must NOT vote for Ron Paul.
Voters who want peace, a humane foreign policy, restoration of civil liberties, an end to the war on drugs, sound money, balanced budgets, honesty, integrity and transparency in government, and a President wholly committed to Constitutional government can vote for Ron Paul.
Ain’t that difficult a choice.
Ill take Ron Paul 2012